Getting a handle on COVID-19 risk in your group rides

With the coronavirus infections continuing to surge across the U.S., cyclists need better tools for deciding when to ride together, especially as group sizes increase. Today we are introducing COVID-19 risk estimates for upcoming rides in the United States.

Android app version 0.26 now displays a new metric to estimate the chance (0-100%) that at least one COVID-19 positive individual will be present at the ride.  The model was conceived by Joshua Weitz, PhD and Director of Quantitative Biosciences at Georgia Tech. A team subsequently developed a dashboard to visualize the risk at gatherings of various sizes.

Thanks to their work, Ride Alert can now perform the same calculation, but with a useful twist...applying Google Machine Learning (ML) datasets which forecast daily SARS-CoV-2 cases in every U.S. county from historical trends.

The forecasts are made possible through a COVID-19 public dataset, trained on data sources such as those from Johns Hopkins University, Descartes Lab, and the United States Census Bureau, continually updated with guidance from the Harvard Global Health Institute.

The COVID-19 Public Forecasts model produces forecasts at the critical jurisdiction of public health action—the county. Coupled with the work of the Harvard Global Health Institute’s county-level COVID-19 Suppression Metrics, the COVID-19 Public Forecast Model will allow for targeted testing and public health interventions on a county-by-county basis. By providing accurate, timely predictions of cases, infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to both policy makers and the general public, it will enhance our ability to understand and respond to the rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic - Dr. Thomas Tsai

For more information on how Ride Alert calculates the score, see the FAQ

Article: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201109/whats-my-risk-of-covid

Citation: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01000-9